DETERMINATION AND EVALUATION OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PRICES OF CRUDE OIL SALES PRICE OF FIVE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND CREATING A MODEL FOR THE PRICING OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Abstract

Crude oil is refineries main input at production of petroleum products and changes of it, s price impact on the price of products very much. Therefor there is close relationship between crude oil and oil products market and price information is pasted between the market price information. Current study set to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between refinery crude oil price and price of refined petroleum with using of autoregressive methods with lagged explanatory and error correction model during monthly period since 2002 to 2013. Results of estimated model with the auto regressive lagged explanatory model show that this dynamic model move towards long-term equilibrium. Results of long-term estimation show that two variables price of gas oil and gasoline prices do not impact on crude oil price significantly. Variables such as fuel oil, kerosene and liquid gas have significant positive impact on crude oil price. In the long run through these three variables, kerosene price variable has the greatest impact on crude oil price that can be considered for long-term crude oil price policies based on the prices of petroleum products. After the price of kerosene, fuel oil price has the greatest impact on crude oil prices in the long term.